The Melbourne Festival of Racing hits its peak on Saturday at Flemington. Nine blacktype races, two group ones and world class horses will be racing for their share in more then $3.2 Million in prizemoney.
There is no Black Caviar, but the $1 Million Lexus Newmarket Handicap (1200m) promises to be a beauty with Hay List, Foxwedge, Lone Rock and Buffering all set to do battle again after chasing the mighty mare in the Lightning Stakes (1000m). But there are several key challengers, with the likes of Bel Sprinter, boom Sydney galloper Rain Affair, Woorim, Beaded and Facile Tigre in search of Group One glory down the straight.
The $1 Million Australian Cup (2000m) is a two horse race in betting, with Americain and Lucas Cranach dominating the market. But don’t be surprised to see a horse like Illo knock them both off. When an up-and-coming stayer has J B Cummings as the trainer, it always has to be respected.
Overall, it will be another ‘Super Saturday’ at the most prestigious racecourse in the world.
Race One: TBV Thoroughbred Breeders Stakes 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Very tough race. Going for Mrs Gray. Loved her run in the Magic Millions behind Driefontein and does handle the straight course well.
Don’t Back Me: Snitzerland was, on face value, very impressive at Mornington, but I question the depth in that race. Might be a risk.
Big Danger: Armed For Action put up a grand effort in the Blue Diamond when finishing third. Drops in grade and Williams sticks.
Roughie: Real Stolle has done nothing in two runs this time in. She gets her chance to bounce back to form on her home track with Olly riding.
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Race Two: MSS Security Stakes 1100m Form Guide
Back Me: With all things equal, Halle Rocks should just win and win easily. Three from three, his first up win was arrogant and he appears to be all class. Find the best price, watch her win and get in the queue.
Don’t Back Me: Glows was ridden perfectly by McEvoy to win the Typhoon Tracy at Moonee Valley. I just feel she is meeting a couple of handy types here.
Big Danger: Satin Shoes wasn’t beaten far in the Oakleigh Plate after getting no luck in the straight. She has 59.5kg, but Nash is on and that is a big tick in her favour.
Roughie: The drop back in distance for Unpretentious is interesting. I rate him very highly as a horse, just unsure how he’ll go here. If he brings his form from his first campaign, he’d be right in the mix.
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Race Three: Henry Bucks Sires Produce Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Best bet of the day for me here in Rusambo. Got a long way back in the Blue Diamond, was as green as grass in the straight, yet found the line powerfully. Winkers are on, drawn perfectly, perhaps some give in the ground…looks the winner.
Don’t Back Me: Black Caviars young sibling All Too Hard was slick on debut, but the barrier for an inexperienced colt is a concern.
Big Danger: Jimando sat three deep on the speed and fought on tenaciously for fourth in the Blue Diamond. Nash is back on, he’ll lead and prove very hard to beat.
bReally good to see Peter Snowden give a nice ride, Tatra, to Queenslander Damian Browne, who I think is one of the best in Australia. This filly was good at Rosehill over 1200m last start and will lap up the extra furlong.
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Race Four: Blamey Stakes 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: I know it’s a big step up in grade, but Snow Covers run first up had ‘back me next start’ written all over it. Obviously going well enough for connections to enter him in a prestigious Group Two race. I like him at odds.
Don’t Back Me: Centennial Park was a shade disappointing last start in the Apollo and is giving some weight to good horses here.
Big Danger: Forgive and forget Wall Street went around in the Futurity. Sat back in a race which was run at a snails crawl. Expect him to fire here.
Roughie: Chasm was threading his way through when the race was all over last Friday night at Moonee Valley. Steps up to the mile now, Brad Rawiller sticks with him and the horse loves the Flemington mile.
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Race Five: TAB Sportsbet Kewney Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Very keen on Shopaholic. Beat Mosheen fair and square two starts back (How good does that form read now), then sprinted brilliantly to win at Caulfield. Drawn well again and Boss sticks with her. Any horse that beats Mosheen has to be respected.
Don’t Back Me: Soft Sand was given the perfect ride by Olly, but was no match for Shopaholic at Caulfield. She won’t turn the tables here.
Big Danger: If Angel Of Mercy runs straight, she probably beats Shopaholic and Mosheen at Flemington. She is the only one who can threaten the top tip here.
Roughie: Emmalene made up good ground in the Light Fingers behind Sea Siren along the fence, which wasn’t the place to be. Very talented type, she can get home hard with luck.
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Race Six: Lexus Newmarket Handicap 1200m Form Guide
Back Me: Much like the Oakleigh Plate, it is wide open. More than a dozen winning chances for me. Hay List, Beaded, Rain Affair, Woorim, Buffering, Lone Rock, Bel Sprinter, Facile Tigre and Foxwedge are the main contenders.
Don’t Back Me: Can’t say anything here, because it is that open.
Big Danger: If Hay List can overcome the weight, he should win. Having said that, $3.20 is slightly short. Beaded at $17 and Facile Tigre at $21 look superb overs. Both are high quality sprinters who handle the straight course with ease and tend to run their best races down the straight six.
Roughie: If you want an absolute bolter, perhaps look at Phelan Ready. $151 looks good value given he ran alright under the circumstances in the Lightning.
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Race Seven: Dubai Australian Cup 2000m Form Guide
Back Me: Illo at $8 is very tempting. McEvoy made an error in the Peter Young where he sat and waited. This horse prefers to roll along and get the momentum. He’ll get that on his home track and J B Cummings is overdue to win another major.
Don’t Back Me: Americain is a world class stayer, but it’ll take a huge effort to win first up against a couple of crack gallopers who have race fitness.
Big Danger: We unearthed our new WFA star in Lucas Cranach after he bolted in to win to the Peter Young. He’ll get the perfect run from the rails draw and prove awfully hard to hold out.
Roughie: $10 for last years Caufield Cup winner? Has she lost a leg? That seems crazy. She was caught wide with no cover in the race mentioned above and stuck on well. She won’t get caught deep here and is the knockout horse.
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Race Eight: Schweppervescence Trophy 1600m Form Guide
Back Me: Hi Belle is a classy mare. Caned her rivals the other day at Caulfield and even from the awkward draw, she should go very close to winning.
Don’t Back Me: How Lady Lynette won last start amazes me. 200m, she was floundering and doing zilch yet she picked up and nailed them on the line. Having said that, it was a very weak race and she’ll be found out here.
Big Danger: Marveen didn’t appear happy in the wet last Saturday behid Raspberries. Firmer track here, gun barrier and rider plus she excels at 1600m.
Roughie: Vintedge sat near the speed and condition gave out late behind Hi Belle. Much better record second up, Nash sticks with her and she should be near the mark.
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Race Nine: Super Saturday Stakes 1400m Form Guide
Back Me: Smokin’ Joey could not have been more impressive at Sandown, scorching down the centre of the track and in turn broke the track record. Drops 6kg here and is on the limit. Has plenty of talent so here’s hoping that win has dropped the penny with this bloke.
Don’t Back Me: Fawkner is a handy type for Team Williams, but he takes on a couple of good ones here and might just need this run under his belt.
Big Danger: Pago Rock has done nothing wrong since joining the Moody yard. Just got pipped by Speediness last start and will be looking to make amends.
Roughie: Big watch on former kiwi Zabisco, now with Michael Moroney. Look for him to settle back and unleash a huge final 200m. Better suited at a mile, but perhaps have something each-way on him.
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